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Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Bayer Leverkusen win with a probability of 50.3%. A win for Borussia Dortmund had a probability of 27.71% and a draw had a probability of 22%.
The most likely scoreline for a Bayer Leverkusen win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.33%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (6.82%) and 0-2 (6.65%). The likeliest Borussia Dortmund win was 2-1 (6.72%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (9.57%). The actual scoreline of 1-1 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole correctly predicted a draw in this match.
Result | ||
Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
27.71% ( 0.03) | 21.99% ( 0.03) | 50.3% ( -0.06) |
Both teams to score 64.67% ( -0.08) |
Goals |
Over 2.5 | Under 2.5 |
65.09% ( -0.12) | 34.9% ( 0.11) |
Over 3.5 | Under 3.5 |
43.11% ( -0.13) | 56.88% ( 0.13) |
Borussia Dortmund Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
75.41% ( -0.05) | 24.58% ( 0.04) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
40.92% ( -0.06) | 59.07% ( 0.05) |
Bayer Leverkusen Goals |
Over 0.5 | Under 0.5 |
85.75% ( -0.07) | 14.24% ( 0.06) |
Over 1.5 | Under 1.5 |
58% ( -0.12) | 42% ( 0.11) |
Score Analysis |
Borussia Dortmund | Draw | Bayer Leverkusen |
2-1 @ 6.72% ( 0.01) 1-0 @ 4.91% ( 0.02) 2-0 @ 3.45% ( 0.01) 3-1 @ 3.14% ( 0) 3-2 @ 3.06% ( -0.01) 3-0 @ 1.61% ( 0) 4-1 @ 1.1% ( -0) 4-2 @ 1.07% ( -0) Other @ 2.64% Total : 27.71% | 1-1 @ 9.57% ( 0.02) 2-2 @ 6.55% ( -0) 0-0 @ 3.5% ( 0.02) 3-3 @ 1.99% ( -0.01) Other @ 0.38% Total : 21.99% | 1-2 @ 9.33% ( 0) 0-1 @ 6.82% ( 0.02) 0-2 @ 6.65% ( 0.01) 1-3 @ 6.06% ( -0.01) 0-3 @ 4.32% ( -0) 2-3 @ 4.25% ( -0.01) 1-4 @ 2.95% ( -0.01) 0-4 @ 2.11% ( -0.01) 2-4 @ 2.07% ( -0.01) 1-5 @ 1.15% ( -0.01) 3-4 @ 0.97% ( -0.01) Other @ 3.61% Total : 50.3% |
Team | P | W | D | L | F | A | GD | PTS | |
C | Bayer LeverkusenB. Leverkusen | 34 | 28 | 6 | 0 | 89 | 24 | 65 | 90 |
2 | Stuttgart | 34 | 23 | 4 | 7 | 78 | 39 | 39 | 73 |
3 | Bayern MunichBayern | 34 | 23 | 3 | 8 | 94 | 45 | 49 | 72 |
4 | RB Leipzig | 34 | 19 | 8 | 7 | 77 | 39 | 38 | 65 |
5 | Borussia DortmundDortmund | 34 | 18 | 9 | 7 | 68 | 43 | 25 | 63 |
6 | Eintracht FrankfurtFrankfurt | 34 | 11 | 14 | 9 | 51 | 50 | 1 | 47 |
7 | Hoffenheim | 34 | 13 | 7 | 14 | 66 | 66 | 0 | 46 |
8 | Heidenheim | 34 | 10 | 12 | 12 | 50 | 55 | -5 | 42 |
9 | Werder Bremen | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 48 | 54 | -6 | 42 |
10 | Freiburg | 34 | 11 | 9 | 14 | 45 | 58 | -13 | 42 |
11 | Augsburg | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 50 | 60 | -10 | 39 |
12 | Wolfsburg | 34 | 10 | 7 | 17 | 41 | 56 | -15 | 37 |
13 | Mainz 05Mainz | 34 | 7 | 14 | 13 | 39 | 51 | -12 | 35 |
14 | Borussia MonchengladbachBorussia M'bach | 34 | 7 | 13 | 14 | 56 | 67 | -11 | 34 |
15 | Union BerlinUnion Berlin | 34 | 9 | 6 | 19 | 33 | 58 | -25 | 33 |
16 | VfL BochumVfL Bochum | 34 | 7 | 12 | 15 | 42 | 74 | -32 | 33 |
R | FC Koln | 34 | 5 | 12 | 17 | 28 | 60 | -32 | 27 |
R | SV Darmstadt 98Darmstadt | 34 | 3 | 8 | 23 | 30 | 86 | -56 | 17 |
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