AZ's form has been indifferent in recent months, but they are still in a commanding position to qualify for Europe once again, meaning they will be determined to return to winning ways.
Excelsior have lost five straight matches and we are predicting a sixth successive defeat for the visitors, even if they have enough attacking quality to make an interesting game of it.
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Data Analysis
Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a AZ Alkmaar win with a probability of 75.37%. A draw had a probability of 14.9% and a win for SBV Excelsior had a probability of 9.71%.
The most likely scoreline for an AZ Alkmaar win was 2-0 with a probability of 10.69%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 3-0 (9.37%) and 2-1 (9.06%). The likeliest drawn scoreline was 1-1 (6.9%), while for a SBV Excelsior win it was 1-2 (2.92%). The actual scoreline of 4-0 was predicted with a 6.2% likelihood. Our team at Sports Mole and our data analysis both correctly predicted that AZ Alkmaar would win this match.
0.78) 
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